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At first, Trump seemed to take a resolute position concerning Ukraine. After delivering statements of "severe repercussions" during the summer if Russia's president carried on blocking ceasefire negotiations, he eventually enacted major penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, via his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, which was developed by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's proposal would in practice benefit Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in danger. Despite ringing declarations that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", much of the initiative effectively weaken that very autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his corporate past, Trump seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, as if handing Putin a portion of Ukrainian soil will appease the leader. Yet, Russia's invasion is not merely about occupying a destroyed swath of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an enticing model for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that his growing autocracy withholds them.

Border Concessions

While freezing in position the currently divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its military have been failed to capture in exceeding a decade of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously weakened.

This region is the place of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a essential barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, leaving Putin a clear route to Kyiv should he later opt to renew the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would make future conflict easier for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their current large number troops to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's proposal places no such limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "All Nazi belief system and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump places no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the proposal makes the Russian Federation promise not to "attack other states" and to "establish in law its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that Putin has violated similar agreements in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to honor the nation's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized land in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we trust this commitment on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western protection assurances. While the proposal warns of a "decisive unified defense action" in case the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars range from fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from stationing forces on the nation's land, thereby blocking the security presence, likely commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his diminished troops, rearming, and attacking again.

International Reaction

Another side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. But different from a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's primary protection against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of alliance members, including Trump, to respond with force to Putin's aggression, something they have {not