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Amid the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.